The truth science knows and the lies they tell
NB: A Work in Progress
This blog is to share simple facts based reality, defined as what the data and science gathered to test that reality says, regarding population and the resources available to support it. Such a simple approach to testing the reality exposes the absolute and knowing deceit of the limits to growth and exponentially rising claims about dangerous population explosions that clearly are not happening as described, but promoted for the gain of their own ruling class by those holding false in fact Malthusian beliefs regarding human development . I have written this to make it clear that their false claims are easily disproven on the facts we know very well, because governments monitor them globally. So the rhetoric regarding population growth and being unable to support it with available resources is demonstrable and delusional rubbish, on so many levels and facts.
As regards population, this was well/best described to millions of people by Hans Rosling, then quickly forgotten by the weak minded and hard public and chattering classes, to follow the easy sounding woke beliefs of the likes of Thunberg’s and Attenborough’s contrived and knowing deceit. People are clearly naturally gullible and unable to test assertions, even prefer to be part of a tribal belief in untested authority when the facts are there to check. Not very promising for a society that depends on understanding and deploying technology effectively to continue to survive and advance through the prosperity and surpluses we generate through the increasing use of plentiful cheap energy per capita..
First let’s be clear about the reality of the changes in global poverty and health, which are that poverty is decreasing as fast as health is increasing, at an accelerating rate, while population rises as a single bubble effect, that ends when birth rates fall as infant mortality and modern disease control and health care becomes pervasive in developing countries. Which needs the wealth only increased energy use can deliver.
Counter intuitively, experience has proven that raw materials and food societal development needs are not limited by currently known resources and methods – the inbuilt and obvious nonsense of Malthusian beliefs. The record also shows that the supply of food, goods and other resources have expanded to become more plentiful at lower cost as the population demanding them increases. This is self-evident when the data is examined. You can check the data from the study of facts for yourself (avoiding the opinions of “experts” claiming to represent that data tp you) , better than believing what a blogges writes . I address some details below, mainly as regards population. The primary subject of this blog. The text below is itemised to keep the core point separated and summary as I felt appropriate to making the point.
1. With growing wealth and Western medicine available to many billions more, the reality of how the population has and will change as a result of this massive improvement in human survival, in particular infant mortality, deserves analysis, not belief in the overt nonsense in the overt and known facts talked by activists like the Erlichs, Thunberg, Attenborough, XR, etc.. Who seek to deceive by misrepresenting the facts science knows, in the name of their beliefs, which are clearly false on the facts of nature and human activity that science and statistics have recorded and anyone literate and numerate can easily check, but prefer to believe than do the work and repeat the facts to others.
As my go-to man on this, Hans Rosling says, “we have never lived in harmony with nature, we die in harmony with nature”: Words of wisdom, from a statistician who worked first in 3rd World medicine so knows reality. Our primary responsibility is to protect ourselves from Nature so we live fuller lives and don’t get sick or are harmed by natural events that will occur and we cannot control, or even influence, but can defend against by relocation or adaption. Mark them well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI
Hans Rosling explained this very well, many times, to massive lay audiences, who then forget reality to listen to the easier to follow simplostic, delusional, fearful scare stories of the Malthusian nonsense of the idiot Attenborough, an hard of physics naturalist presenter who seemed nice, but know nothing of relevance about the global climate system. But the masses preferred to believe this celebrity naturalist who clearly has NO idea what he is talking about, based in claims that deny the observations of nature, which he claims to present but actually doesn’t know. While they fail to notice his fellow naturalist Prof David Bellamy, a real Academic before being a presenter, is removed from mass media platforms because he suggests the climate rhetoric is deceitful and not what science knows at all.
As you can check for yourself from the original data, that Attenborough has probably never read, just presents his script earnestly for his money.
The other problem around climate and population is that so many people in developed countries, who cannot even see the reality, believe the deceit of left wing activist MSM arts graduate “communicators”, and their supposed facts about climate change they overtly understand little of. But audiences prefer to believe invalidated assertions, so have become ignorant and lazy-minded “woke” victims of false tribal belief about most subjects concerning the natural and human World, useful idiots, created by dishonest and deceitful National politicians, educators and media. As Rosling exposed as regards population – that the BBC broadcast, but Attenborough simply ignores.
3. When children stop dying, women can, and do, stop producing them, because they are not needed. The women become more productive as a result, so are freed from producing and rearing too many children to maintain the population levels so can now contribute to the economy, if allowed. A real bootstrap effect. Not what you are told. Because it doesn’t support their narrative, that human development is bad.
QUESTION: What is the planet being saved for? What is the purpose or logic of preserving rather than using a Planet that can support the continuing development of intelligent life, and will ultimately live and die with its Sun, when its resources , so precious and supportive of the development of a species that can uniquely use to engineer nature to their needs, using technology that has understood how nature works (physics) , will be consumed and recycled randomly in Space by the growing Red Giant and its subsequent remains, to no useful purpose at all???
Should we simply deny the measures we can take to make human lives better and die “in harmony with nature”? Earth and its, albeit short lived organic human species represent a level of order in the Universe that is clearly rare in intelligence density, and should be able to maximise its potential while it lasts, not wait to be toasted in ignorance, the future the Greens apparently prefer.
4. Back to current population. The reduction in infant mortality creates a bubble of the resulting adult population, a generation of 6 child families all survive in now more populous and formerly high infant mortality countries. But they so reduce birth rates to a lower replacement level of children. Hence the rapid growth soon stops. As does further pressure on resources, which the developed world has provided the technology and support to meet, and avoid the consequences of, except where greedy power obsessed humans fight for control of developing countries.
5. Such growth is not exponential rise, in fact its exponentially decreasing once the infant mortality falls, already at Western replacement levels in Bangladesh for example.
So claims that human population growth is unsustainable are simple numerical and easy to check deceit on the fact of demographics by knowing liars. As already explained above by Rosling.
This reality already happened in many currently developing countries, before they even became developed, perhaps partly HOW they will become developed, more productive with more energy use per capita plus more time to be productive. Bangladesh Birth rate is 2.1 children per woman, if you doubt this ask Google/Echo/Alexa/Siri
“what is the fertility rate per woman in XXX”. ANS for Egypt:
“The value for Fertility rate, total (births per woman) in Egypt was 3.37 as of 2017. As the graph below shows, over the past 57 years this indicator reached a maximum value of 6.72 in 1960 and a minimum value of 3.01 in 2006”
6. I suggest those who think population is not a self-evident and self-correcting hence sustainable problem of prosperity and better health care watch Hans explain above, if you didn’t already. Or be self identify as the unknowing humans he describes.
Because it’s as deterministically obvious as your beliefs are wrong on any logical factual basis, on the historical evidence of development in the West, for a start. As he explains, a Monkey has a better chance of getting this basic knowledge right by luck than a University professor by what they believe.
People are expected to prefer to believe the prejudices of ignorant specialised academics with reputations to protect whose ignorant opinionated arrogance denies the simple global facts of the numbers recorded by governments, that. but no one bothers to check the actual data. Or think. Far too hard.
7. Also note again, that the Malthusian idea that more people make resources scarcer and more expensive, which worries the elites who want to control the supply and demand of most of it for themselves. But that is also a delusion on the facts.
The majority of what people need has increased in abundance to match demand, at lower prices as the volumes demanded increases. These are the facts, versus the deceitful rhetoric of Malthusian delusionals like Attenborough and the Erlichs, who make alarmist end of days claims regarding famine and scarcity that are overtly false on the available facts of what is happening in the real world we can measure – to scare people into supporting their nasty psychopathic, regressive, controlling and absolutely unjustified by nature agendas.
QUESTION: Which to believe, the beliefs of zealots and liars, or the facts we can measure and check for ourselves?
8. The Mathusian rhetoric was wrong when it was invented, before technological society harnessed fossil fuels to develop its output per person, then massively more powerful nuclear energy to carry this development of our ability to control hence defend ourselves from nature and move our developemnt forward to higher level still, when fossil energy has really gone. (And remeber synthertics can replace natural compounds if you have the energy to create them.
POINT: The supposed limits to growth were never the real limits, given our ability to explore, extract more difficult reserves, adapt and improve our use of technology.
If you have any doubt of how this works, and prefer qualitative words that describe it, JFK did not, and prdoduced an eloquent description of how the human race have advanced in 200 years using plentiful cheap energy to multiply human powers as the science painfully won in feudal societies was finally realised. This well edited set of points from his Rice speech makes it clear WHY we can only move forward. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th5A6ZQ28pE&t=122s
nb: Note (at 1:20s) how steam delivered the future we now enjoy, and how clearly he warns of the dangers of ending progress using the precautionary principle, resistance to all change to preserve the ruling classes control of people and money, that religion had imposed for so long by fear of death, and we have only just overcome to ake the greatest change for human progress in one Million years over 200 years.
Our problems of development have always been overcome by human ingenuity, as Kennedy makes clear. If you recall, genetic engineering of crops by selective breeding and some forms of disease control have been improving since before the stuck in time and place thought processes of the unimaginative Malthus, and the fear of progress in the studied ignorance of their limited imaginations we see in green thought. All as daft and unknowing then as Attenborough et al now, , but without the data at that time to make it clear the ideas were wrong, as we actually have now, and Attenborough has when he spouts his evil deceit, that will kill millions, if followed, from cold and disease that regression to energy starved feudal lives will bring to many, reversal of economic development in the West, denial of that progress to the developing World, etc.etc.
9. The number of atoms and molecules on Earth will stay the same while gravity works, so, if there are no natural substitutes for exhausted natural resources, there are always synthetics, which we can make using available molecules with our technology, plus the inexhaustible cheap energy that nuclear power can deliver to maintain a far more developed and richer society, better able to afford to care for its environment as it prospers in the developing World as we already have in the Western World, while all areoncreasingly better protected from the extremes and diseases of nature.
We have reversible reactions to make synthetic fuels, collect the exhaust CO2 and water vapour and add energy to recycle the fuel molecules, , wholly sustainable. Synthetics can replace exhausted or inferior natural resources with new materials. Plastic is a good one, Carbon fibre, etc. synthetic meats that are actually edible and tasty, etc.
Some doable at scale now. Others will become doable as any real shortage, that new exploration cannot supply, makes their development necessary.
10. What people believe anout population and resoirces it needs amd its effect on the planetary environment are clearly wrong on the evidence of what has happened. Also what can happen, if progress is preferred to a return to feudal economies the greens plan in the name of irrational fear that is unsupported by their false in fact religious belief led rhetoric, that they promote to control humanity and deny the progress that will best serve us to the mass of people, ro keep the best for themselves in their Malthusian blinkered beliefs, that the simple data does not support in fact.
11. Fortunately developing nations understand reality and back to the future delusion is certainly not the plan of educated technocrats in India, China – nor Africa down the line. South Africa, much of Northern Africa and Egypt are already well on the way to a lower birth rate and development led by increased energy use.
But these are only the facts, and it self evidently remains far easier for most people to believe what they are told by people whose agendas are regressive , controlling and selfish and exploit false fears of untestable threats in fearful people who seem unable to check the facts of how things really work. Sad commentary on most of the human race in the supposedly developed Western world that supposedly leant better than to trust religion during the Protestant enlightenment. You can see why religions get such easy unquestioning following when humans can still so easily prefer to slip into easy belief in, or conformity with, buggaboos – rather than understand reality and question authority as critical thinking of a secular education taught them to. Or failed to in most cases..
Given what we know, as things are, global population is not likely to exceed a sustainable 11 Billion, decreasing because they are all now developed, well supplied on the evidence of Simon.
And I suggest we have not yet scratched the surface (sorry) of what the planet can support (except in Australia, the best eroded hence largest open cast mine in the World, as I half understand the geology?)
Sustainability of the Human race is not a real problem, if we keep moving ahead and making everything better, safer, more survivable by increasing the output per capita people can achieve with our enrgy dependnent technologies and better discovery and extraction..
All this is sill dwarfed by the natural forces of a planet we are simply insignificant porganic froth upon and have little effect on the natural cycles of in space.…………. recycled Dinosaurs and Cycads from the last epoch. Same molecules, different species.
nb: The same approach, of checking the easily accessible facts, is possible as regards climate change. But the platforms and channels of public communication have now been closed to those prepared and able to do this. So the facts about climate, as with population, and the faux solutions to the actually non-problem of a very small effect on the Lapse Rate from CO2 emissions, exponentially diminishing with concentration, can be hidden from the proletariat.
This deceit by the powerful allows the beliefs created to be monetised for the profit of elites. Also to advance the economic progress of Asia over the developed West, the primary goal of the UN IPCC. But that’s another story.
This is the end of this Population and Resources 101 blog.
©BRLC 11/2021
ENDS
